00:09 We are recording this right now in mid-august parts of the country like in the South are harvesting other parts of country are gearing up for Harvest and here you sit saying, oh 00:18 my gosh, the August 12th report came out. Well World agricultural supply and demand and exports information and estimates. What the 00:27 heck should I do? Well, we're going to answer just that. Welcome to extreme AG's cutting the 00:34 curve podcast where you'll learn from the experiences of America's most Innovative and successful Farmers 00:40 as they shorten your learning curve increase your yield Roi and profit this episode of cutting the curve is brought to you by Sylvia's Financial 00:49 the company that offers customized Risk Management Solutions for your farming operations. Sylvia's Financial 00:55 integrates crop insurance with government programs and Grain and cattle marketing to achieve profitability for your farm. 01:01 And now here is your host, Damien Mason. Hey there, welcome to another fantastic episode of extreme mags cutting the curve with our good friends from Sylvia's Financial. 01:11 Sylvia's Financial is the company that integrates as you know, crop insurance marketing strategy and 01:20 government programs to help your farm be profitable. Well we're talking today about is it too early 01:26 to have a harvest? Strategy for marketing your commodity. The reality is know what is not it is never too early to have 01:34 a strategy to keep yourself financially solvent and selling your product helps you do that with me or Bryce Hughes and Sean 01:43 Finley. They are risk advisors for Sylvia's financial and they're gonna help guide you down this path, Sean and Bryce. Thanks for being here. 01:52 Thanks for having us. All right. So the question is we talk a lot about this. This is your world not mine. You're the experts 02:01 if I was a farmer, I would turn to you guys and say what should I do? Because I don't really want to sit and stare at a screen all day over two cent 02:10 moves or worry that all the sudden a shipment didn't get out of Ukraine. There's a lot going on. And here we are. We're looking at Harvest. We're a month away from here in the Midwest where 02:19 you and I live Bryce actually, so do you Sean and Nebraska where we're gonna see combines rolling on on beans here within about five weeks. 02:30 Or should I do what should my strategy be? Should I just hang out now and wait say I've already made my decision. Should I sell everything that's old crop? Should 02:39 I make sure that I have everything gone? What should I be doing? You know I feel like we've kind of hit on this several times and you know, you almost sound like it dead or you 02:48 know, you just kind of beating the dead horse but you know one truly understanding where you lie with your insurance protection, 02:54 you know, that's a lot of the reason how a lot of the way those are designed is to get you through Harvest, you know for guys 03:03 that are under marketed, you know, and I would kind of classify that is under 50% You know, we are still looking at. 03:11 Several dollars above the normal ranges that we've seen the last few years and for guys, like I said that are extremely under marketed this would is 03:20 still not a bad opportunity to lock in a significant profit for prices or some issues. Is there some strategy price that's like 30% You told 03:29 me that I was supposed to be 30% sold by a certain point was that point in June? Think that yeah, we were more towards the 50% back 03:38 in June still. But yeah, we were. We were wanting to be at least 50% sold back then. I mean when we were above or at that $7 Mark, okay. 03:48 So the person right now the operator he or she is sitting there and they're saying all right. I'm got I've got 50% sold just 03:57 like you told me to I sold I felt like it was good. I was not what 14 dollars soybean range, maybe even 15 seven dollar 04:06 corn or they're about I'm feeling really good about this. I'm 50% sold. Now, what do I do with my next 50% We've 04:12 come down. I think I saw old crop corn. You know, I can still go and get it sold between now and Labor Day and get like a 40 04:24 Cent positive basis. But once we start talking about coming out of the field, aren't we losing like negative 45 bases? So what am I supposed to do with my 04:33 new crop that I'm expecting to harvest looks like we're gonna have a yield I'm not scared anymore. The rains 04:39 are gonna be sufficient. What should I do? And that really kind of boils down to whether you have storage or not, whether you have to get rid of this stuff between now and 04:49 say November when you're harvesting or if you have the capacity to store every bushel that you produce. I mean, that's kind of all depends on what you 04:58 have on your farm. Yeah, and if I've got to pay Seven how much of my pain if I don't have storage but I'm just gonna take it. I'm gonna let it be stored and and like 05:07 five cents a month or something when I pay Yeah, I think it depends on the elevator. But yeah that or upwards of 05:17 okay, so we call Seven cents a seven cents a good number. So the point is and they're always the calculation to make is it better off 05:23 to store a 7 cents a bushel. And then even if you have your own storage it still cost you something right, correct? What's the number you could tell people to count for their on-farm storage 05:33 per month? I always tell guys the figure at least a couple cents a month, you know, a lot of guys will make the argument. Oh, well, it's paid for you know, 05:42 but there's also quality risk, you know that you still own that product. It's yours that you know keep quality up. There is risk associated with that. 05:51 I'd like to point out Sean that I want just because it's paid for it doesn't mean it still doesn't have a cost. I once had somebody tell me when when things were 06:03 really good back in 2011, and I said, I don't know if you can justify feeding six dollar and 70 Cent corn to those steers no more than Beavis on before they said I'm not 06:12 feeding the six dollars 70 Cent corn. I raised it myself. Well, if you could go and sell it for $6.70. 06:23 You're feeding six dollars seventy Cent corn. So anyway, we know that so anyway, let's talk about the under hedged 06:29 because I think that that's really what we need to help out here the under hedge the under Market of the undersold person. 06:35 They're sitting there saying crap. I I did want to pull the trigger and now here I am and I'm a couple months away from my combine running. What's your 06:44 recommendation? I know it's going to depend on a few things one. You just mentioned with storage. What else does it depend on risk tolerance? I 06:50 know you're gonna tell me that what else does it depend on? I would just say I mean, we're at us 06:56 a seasonal point in time where it we typically don't rally in the Harvest but it's where guys can't really afford that drop. I mean, we're still above 07:05 six dollar corn just guys can't really afford that drop-down to say 550 or five dollar corn I'd say 07:11 right now. We at least have wrist down to 550 corn like that's very possible. I mean, so maybe look at I 07:19 put spread or something that gets you a floor here at six down to 550. I mean just something basic 07:25 like that or if you're okay with margin risk, then maybe you can do that put spread and sell a call above you to help pay for that. But then 07:34 again with the yield that we just all the USDA put out like that 175.4. Yeah, there is upside potential but seasonally do 07:43 we see that or when does that yield number kind of I know there's a lot of estimates down at that 170 level with where do we start to see 07:52 that yield? Is that after the first of the year? So there's a lot of question marks on where you want your upside and how much you're willing to give. Yeah. So a person listen to 08:01 this maybe didn't just listen to the report the way we did. So we went from 1778 bushel estimate 08:07 on corn. We went down to 175 on an estimate if it continues to Trend lower and get down and people just seem like that much why would move over because 08:16 All of the movement on price happens on very little of the bushels, right? And so that's kind of what you're talking about. So if I'm under sold for the current 08:25 year meaning the 22 crop and maybe I I felt pretty smart because I had stuff in my bins that was unmarketed and 08:34 I pulled it out like maybe I don't know May June when I was still grabbing seven bucks on that and I'm like, hey, I think I'm just gonna hang 08:43 around and be under sold. I I did what you told me to I sold half my stuff. I'm gonna sit on the rest of it even at seven cents a bushel if I have to take it to town 08:52 and let them hold it for me. If I let it go for six months, that's 42 cents. You have a hard time saying no, that's a 09:05 bad idea because there is with a reduced yield Outlook a chance that that 42 cents is completely there but it is still 42 cents and if 09:14 I can sell what you just tell me I can sell the new stuff for what's the number one six ten is what we finish that on December. Yeah, so I could sell 09:23 a six ten new crop stuff. I don't have to worry about storage it's there. And so I had to get the 652 by June to 09:32 for it to make sense other ways, right? Yeah, or what me and Shawn would argue with too is if you're gonna spend the 40 cents doing that you're better off 09:41 selling the cash and spending 40 cents on some call options or something like that to gain your upside so you don't have as much risk. 09:49 Yeah, and so go ahead John I take the six. So I take the six ten and then tell me what I do. Yeah, so I mean like a strategy that me at Bryce 09:58 were looking at earlier was you know, buying a 650 call that gets you through the end of April. So be a may call buying a 650 and selling a 10:08 750 for maybe 20 cents a bushel. So rather than spending, you know upwards of 40 to 50 cents. You're spending 20. 10:16 And you also have a inherent floor because you're selling your cash or that's the kind of the detail with the if you just paying 42 cents a 10:25 bushel for storage. You have no floor. So if it goes down to Dollar, I just are you tell me that I just sold six ten, but then I 10:31 spent 20 cents. So it's really net 590. But I gave myself the upward potential of what a dollar. So attack on the 610 plus a dollar if we happen to 10:42 Rally that high you're looking at Seven Ten corn. Yeah, and so the person that says, you know what I maybe would just take the six ten and not even 10:51 do the 20 cents and that doesn't help you as much because you don't get to sell them that puts in the calls and all these kinds of things. But do 10:57 you argue with that? Does that still make sense? You you think no because what the heck there's upside. 11:05 I wouldn't talk at producer out of that. You know, I think that it just showing them, you know kind of where the market 11:11 is set up and making sure they are okay with either outcome, you know, because some of me and Bryce are 11:17 talking about kind of preparing for this was 2020, you know, there was a lot of us that sold corn between four dollars and 11:23 450 that we were really happy about and then it went to seven. But yeah, well that makes you feel 11:33 dumb, but you got your 440. Uh, yeah and worsen here we're saying well, we don't want to be the guy to not bring that 11:43 up and have to relive that moment in time that where we had to two years ago. I mean, right Yeah, so, um the person that's underaged out. 11:52 I I think you know, I've got I've got more years but I don't have as much experience as you guys do you're the experts how many times 12:01 we've seen a rally in price going through Harvest? I I remember them and I know that they're unusual history would tell 12:10 us don't we usually kind of hang around between now and unless there's some big weather event or news event 12:16 kind of hang around between now and about November, don't we 12:21 Yeah, history would suggest where we've probably seen a lot of the big moves. But I mean the last two years we've kind of slowly trudged higher 12:30 during harvested in the winter, which is a little counter seasonal. Yeah. 12:34 so that being said the the person that says all right, I do have the bush and let's say they don't even hear you and you 12:44 say all right, you're you're paying two cents now I'm paying two cents because I do do it at home. I've got you know, all these bushels of storage at two 12:53 cents and the chance that we have negative news. We end up at 170 bushel recommendation. We're just talking about corn right now. But generally it's all going to 13:02 fall in line with that then all the sudden that that number we talked about. We could see a buck on this. 13:10 The person that says I'm just gonna I'm just gonna sit on it and I'm not even gonna pay Seven cents. I'm gonna be I got at home 13:16 on Farm storage. Are they doing a little different thing than the operator that had to pay Seven cents a month promotional? 13:24 In yes, and now and just because you're storing that and holding it through harvests and into the first the next 13:30 year. It doesn't mean that you can't price some of those bushels off the March board. I think March is like seven cents higher than 13:36 than the than the Beast corn plush or probably getting a little bit better basis. So just because you're storing it doesn't mean you don't that you have to leave it on price. You 13:45 can take advantage of that carry along with the private better basis as well. Yeah, so that I sell it six Seventeen and there's no more there's 13:54 no very little bases on it by March because we burn through most the supply. Am I right? Yeah. Yeah. So you 14:00 recommend doing that? Okay for a person who is a well-headed they're saying, you know what I might have screwed up, 14:09 but I was more than 50% in June and then I saw that we were starting to have some bad news out there. I'm 80 percent sold, and I'm 14:18 I think the rest of it I am going to sit around on and just see what happens because I'm so Well sold, what's that person need to know right now? 14:29 Just where we're at and he's Corn markets. And what is your downside risk and upside me with you being 80% 14:35 sold? You don't have as much downside, but maybe if we do track lower down to that 550, where is 14:41 it time for me to maybe get in and do a cheap call spread of re-own some of those bushels where we do see a rally I can capture some more that potential. 14:51 How much my spending to do that? Roughly depends there's like the call spread that Sean was talking about. I mean, you can get a dollar call spread out there. I mean 15:01 out of the money a little bit for Pride 20 cents. I mean 20 cents a contract. Okay. So you recommending that you recommend that for everybody 15:10 I know that you're gonna say risking all those kinds of things who's the person that shouldn't do what you just recommended who shouldn't who shouldn't 15:16 reprice stuff that they've already sold. Right guys that are under 70% sold. What about price point? What if what 15:25 if they're what if they tell you? I don't know that I can do much better. We we just luckily caught 15:31 the high all of our stuff is sold for I won't be a good number seven tens 720 something like that. And you say hey, you know what? You don't need any my services 15:40 right now. Is that what you tell or you say? No, which is to look at this. 15:46 You know, I think one just kind of like what Bryce said showing potential reownership strategies, you know, but you know, another thing that's gonna be coming right around the corner here is for 2023 corn, 15:55 you know, that's kind of been bouncing back and forth on either side of six dollars and you know, just with as high as it puts are getting these last two 16:04 years six dollar corn might be a good sale might be a very good sale for 14 months from now. Correct. Yeah selling point twenty three, we 16:13 always talk about when we have this much variability now things look really good around here. I think over by 16:19 Bryce they look pretty darn good too as what I'm hearing, but we heard that there's parts of the Corn Belt that did not quite perform 16:25 as well. We know there's some really dry conditions in the Western Plains. They might be an insurance situation. What's their 16:36 marketing strategy look like going in the fall when it couples with insurance. And that's your sweet spot. You know, is this a situation where they should 16:45 do nothing on marketing and just see how things shake out and then their insurance is gonna make them profit what's gonna happen to some of 16:54 those folks? I would say a lot of those folks kind of shy away from committing bushels to the elevator and they kind 17:02 of turn more to us as far as protecting bushels on paper just in case we do see a sell off. I mean but like what we talk on the last podcast really 17:11 about 550 is where the insurance starts to kick in so you we still have risk down to there. I mean then maybe if we 17:20 do get down there then that's where we do the opposite where oh crap if we do really I lose money because I'm 17:26 in the insurance premium right now, so it's kind of just Showing people where you have risk and then where 17:34 at what point do I have risk or if we go up I lose money it just kind of knowing where we're at to the person that wasn't listening to the last time we talked about that 17:43 that unique scenario where I'd I'd rather be a complete loss or a complete bumper. There's that middle that middle Mania that's 17:52 not really good where you don't get your crop insurance and you don't really get your crop money either. So kind of explain that 17:58 one of you are both of you, please So we had this we've had this discussion, but I think that if someone didn't listen to it because it's gonna happen. It's gonna have 18:07 here right? It's gonna happen this year to some of those folks that those Farmers that are out there. They didn't ring the 18:13 bell, but they also didn't get a complete wash and now they're saying crap I'm gonna be I'm gonna be in this middle strata. Now, we're all I get is a little 18:22 bit of money but not enough to really make me whole and I'm not much. I really have a crop to sell one of you what's the deal there? Yeah, all 18:28 kind of use an example of a guy that we work with in the pain handle a Texas, you know, that's kind of one of the driest areas that we've seen but you know between six dollars 18:37 and five fifty that's where is Insurance isn't really helping him just kind of price it that's 550 is where that starts stepping in under 550. He 18:46 actually starts making more money because as insurance payments start coming through but from 5:50 to six dollars. 18:55 His whole on farm income actually goes down because any bushels that he grow. He's kicking himself out of 19:04 insurance payments. So what we but what about if is if he's only gonna get 40 bushels instead of 120, which 19:13 I don't know what you get in the Panhandle taxes or something like that. Is it against all those bushels or how's that work? 19:20 Say that again, he's good. Is it is it still though? His yield is gonna be off so you talk about price but his yields gonna be off as he still made whole by 19:29 the fact he doesn't have the amount of yield. He is made whole but if he has any cash bushels that he has sold, you know, he gets that money regardless. 19:38 Okay, so, you know that, you know, the insurance is gonna make him whole but he's also going to be you know, losing his Mark to Market cash bushels. 19:48 Right the insurance thing and where we live. It doesn't look like there's Insurance even matters in areas that have had really good weather and have really good Factor. So 20:00 what's the what's the Thought on a year like this for those producers? Yeah, I mean the yield isn't might 20:08 not be an insurance issue but the price could be I mean the spring price I mean is at 590 so I mean still if we slip down to that 540 20:17 range 550, I mean you still could trigger a payment potentially if we're at like an average yield and price kind of fall. So I mean 20:26 just because yield isn't looking terrible if yield is average and price Falls, there's still a chance for a payment. I mean, it's not not likely but is still 20:35 possible you use the number five dollars and fifty cents multiple times. Is that because that's the where everything starts to fall apart in 20:44 terms of where programs kick in or don't kick in or is because you think that that's where the fundamentals put this price. 20:52 one to two months from now Both, I mean that's where the Eco and SEO. I know you love acronyms, but that that that's where those Insurance kind of programs start 21:03 to kick in for one. But also I think that's where our downside risk is down to at this point in time. You were selling a government agency 21:12 when you use these terms like SEO and Eco and all that stuff. Okay. So let's talk about the other Commodities. Sorry beans. I just looked 21:21 When I Was preparing for this, I just went to an elevator that's got seven different facilities here 21:27 in Indiana. I was looking at their their numbers and everything, you know obviously has a higher basis. Once 21:33 you start getting a new crop stuff in another couple of months and it was pretty much across the board. It was about 21:39 the same percentage. If you will, we're at 2.33 meaning corn prices were two point three three. I'm sorry. 21:48 It was a multiple soybeans were 2.33 times more than corn price. That seems pretty normal to me. But that means 21:56 it wasn't normal a couple of months ago. Am I right was Court overpriced in its relationship to the soybeans a couple of months ago. And if so, am I 22:05 stupid to have ever sat around thinking at Corners gonna go higher than 725. 22:11 You are right that that's a normal range and it's wasting you can also say I'm right that I'm stupid. It's okay. No, no, it's you 22:20 know, that is the normal range. I'm kind of smack that in the normal range. We've seen both sides the last two years of soybeans being very expensive relative 22:29 to corn and very cheap relative to Corn. Yeah. It that spread will go out of whack every once in a while. So no you would 22:40 not be dumb to say that, you know, they could come even closer together than that. 22:45 There is some history that would suggest that can happen. Well, 2.3 see 2.2 to 2.3 seem 22:51 normal to me historically and then what I'm thinking wait a minute when a couple months ago if it was 16 dollar beans not even 15 maybe and I 23:00 could get half of that on corn. I think that may be corn was showing that it was really high price compared to 23:06 the soybeans. I should have sold more than 50% So that's why I was wondering did I miss did I miss the boat? 23:12 Yeah, but also you were kind of yes corn was that high? But also all the Ukraine stuff going on. There's a there was a lot other question marks regarding corn 23:21 and wheat versus soybeans. I mean because the Ukraine situation didn't impact beans as much as the other two crops. So that's kind of the outlying factor 23:30 that kind of Spooks some people. Got it. All right, we talked about untold bushels and have storage and unsold bushels have 23:39 no storage. We cover that because one of the points you want to make sure you covered and that's because right now is when you're saying gosh, we're 23:46 cleaning out the you know, Now's the Time to get rid of your old stuff. Should we start by saying that is now the time to get rid of your old stuff. There's no reason to carry stuff. 23:55 There's no reason to carry old croppity further is there. I would already know just with quality risk alone. I 24:02 mean if a guy wants to hold upside you can basically buy Futures and have the exact same position as 24:09 it is in your bin. carrying crops are more than a year generally eats the more problems than 24:16 you bargained for and that's because of storage issues storage quality issues not because you don't 24:22 have the capacity. You don't have the all that it's just because of quality issues, correct and by and being long Futures at a brokerage account achieve 24:31 the exact same thing. Got it. So you're you're both on board that if you have anything that's unsold that's old crop right now move it. 24:42 And just like what you said with the bases too. I mean, you're probably looking at a positive basis Now versus a much bigger negative basis here in a couple months where it 24:51 just doesn't make too much sense. Okay unsold bushels new core new crop anything wheat corn soy doesn't matter unsold bushels, and I 25:00 don't have any storage. Your recommendation then from marketing strategy is I don't have any storage. I 25:08 don't want to have grain bins. I don't want to climb grain bins. I can't afford grain bins. Whatever that reason is. I'm maxed 25:14 out on my bins. I've got unsold bushels and I have no storage or I do have storage. So take me through whichever scenario. You want to lead off 25:23 with first, maybe one of you should do the you have storage one of you should do the you don't have 25:27 Yeah, I guess I'll lead off with you have to sell these bushels and you have no storage going into Harvest. I mean, it's just okay, if you're going 25:36 into it knowing that you have to sell and seasonally we're gonna keep tracking lower. I mean just know you 25:42 got your ground to sell these bushels, but maybe having the back of your mind some re-ownership Charities that you want to keep an eye out for where if 25:51 we if you do sell cash and we go down to that 5:55 70 area. Hey, I don't mind buying a few call spreads down there to re-on 26:00 some of these sales because I don't have a choice and I have to sell I mean I think that's just kind of be prepared for that that 26:09 you're gonna have to sell and if you want upside you're gonna have to do some kind of re-ownership strategy on paper. But let's go back to that thing again, you know back historically 26:18 when you're selling stuff immediately off the combine you're taking a pretty big burn because it's the Market's gluted. It's 26:27 it's it needs dried everybody or sister has bushels to sell whatever you don't think you still. 26:36 Pay for storage for a short-term until you can let the market sort of get a little bit of adjustment maybe on 26:42 a year like this when we're seeing what looks like we're going to have downgrades in the yield estimates. 26:48 Is there not a reason to be they're not case to be made for just going ahead and holding it for a while and paying for storage. No. It also depends on your area too on how much you're being charged 26:57 for. I guess I'll start start with that. I mean if you're being charged like what you said to hold it for even three months say 27:03 say 30 cents. It's not really worth because now you you not alone have the risk that you just paid 30 cents a store but you have the downside risk 27:12 where if you would it is sold it and re-owned it with options. You're kind of at the same boat, but you don't have downside risk, so it's 27:21 It really depends on how much you're being charged for storage, I guess and we just talked about reoding it with options through something like 27:27 Sylvia's Financial. I ended up at Max I'm paying 20 cents maybe for something like that. 27:34 Depends on how close do you want to be to to the market? I mean out of the money calls are in the money calls. I mean it just the kind it kind of 27:43 depends on your pocketbook and how much upside that you really want. All right first person like me that doesn't know what that means out of 27:49 the money calls. And in the money called Sean help me interpret the kid, you know what he always does it started back when we first met on 27:55 a zoom call. I commented that he looked kind of young and so now what he does because he's a young guy he he wants to make sure that he 28:04 always makes me look dumb. Like I'm younger than you but I know words that you don't know and what they mean out of the money calls in the 28:13 money call. I'm not a grain Trader. What's at me so after money call basically means that the call 28:19 is the same price that the Market's trading at so December Corners at 6:10, and at the money call would 28:25 be 6:10. Okay, and out of the money call would just be a call that is above the market. So instead of a 610 call. It's maybe a seven dollar call and the far. 28:34 Call gets away from the money it gets cheaper, which makes sense. Buying it a discount. Yes, correct. 28:45 I'm just gonna sit here and let that reflect from it. Remember. I'm kind of slow. I gotta make sure I learned all this. All right. So yeah what 28:51 you just said there is because I I know that there's the side this is why I'd rather just I'd rather just eat some storage because I think things are 29:00 kind of volatile and you just continue to make the point that at some point. 29:05 Paying for storage for stuff that's not sold unless your storage is exceedingly cheap. It's not really the smart 29:11 move most of the time now what I'm hearing price. What in at some point too? I mean you have to realize that we're not just because we're have these yield talks that yield might come down. 29:21 I mean no one knows where yield is going and what that final yields gonna look like. I mean, we very well have risk sub 29:27 550 to five dollar corn, but we also have upside to seven so it is kind of where it's like, okay, if I sell some 29:36 corn now and we go to seven we can stomach that because we probably have more bushels to sell at that price. But if we say here do nothing and go to Five say five 29:45 thirty corn, we can't stomach that. Yeah, right. All right, the other angle then unswimables and you have storage either 29:54 it's cheap for me to do it. I don't know the guy that has the elevator all the charged me opinion a half or I've got stuff that's been out 30:03 here for 10 years and it's fully amortized whatever the deal is. I've got storage and I'm not worried about it. What are you tell me to do? I've got unfold bushels now make the case that I shouldn't 30:12 just sit on it because I still think I should. Of you know for a guy that does have storage. I think the main thing to 30:20 monitors spreads right now from it's like kind of how we talked earlier December to March you can get eight cents. The market is offering to pay you eight 30:29 cents on the Futures to carry it from December to March for March to May. It only is three cents 30:35 and from May to July. They actually take a set away. So you're saying what kind of a dumb dumb would hang around on unsold bushels, even 30:46 if you had Grandpa's grain bins for eight cents time value of money alone. It's smarter to get it out and have my money 30:55 then. Is that what I'm hearing? That or just make sure that you're aware of the opportunity that you can lock that eight cents in now and 31:03 not you know, two weeks down the road if 50 Cents gets peeled off this Market. Do you think because I like that we the way 31:13 you explain stuff to me is always a Kinder manner than when Bryce does it. You don't blatantly tell me that I'm stupid. You let me sort of 31:22 see it for myself that I'm stupid Brian's more like wants to sort of rub my face in a little bit. 31:29 It goes back to he's from Northwest Indiana. I'm from Northeast Indiana way back when we had one area code 219 31:35 those bastards from Northwest Indiana hijacked the area code out of spite and they made us change our business cards change 31:44 our phone books over here to 260. I think there's still a system some degree of hostility from Northwest, Indiana to Northeastern Indiana. And that's what this 31:53 stems from John. What do you think? I just think I'm nicer because if we get to talk about football, I just kind of have to log off 32:01 the meeting because the Huskers are so bad. So I guess the illustration that you're talking about right there. All right, even if I have a whole 32:10 bunch of storage you didn't make a you did not make a price presentation that could ever justify that other than 32:16 just that I needed somewhere to dump it. I mean other than that like we're we're getting our Harvest done so quickly we can't have our hired truck drivers 32:25 sitting at the green terminal. We just from a matter of expediency need our stuff but from a price perspective. There's 32:34 nothing you said that justified me holding on to my own stuff. Am I right about that price? I mean it justifies you holding it to March 32:43 but not much past. That is what Sean's I think trying to say is yes, we're gonna eight Cent carry. So we're getting 32:49 eight more cents just to hold it until say January because that's based off the January or February March for we're gaining 32:55 eight cents plus we're gaining on the basis as well because bases should improve after harvest. So yes, we're picking up eight cents on Futures, but 33:04 we're also picking up some scents on basis Improvement as well. Yeah, you might get 10 to 20 cents on basis. So instead 33:10 of eight you're looking at closer to 30. Yeah. Now that for sure you can you can hold on the stuff for 30 cents over four months time and make that make sense. Correct? Yeah. Yes, 33:19 but unless they're bidding more on basis for you know, May in July delivery. You would not want to hold. 33:27 Grain past that. Yeah. So the person that then says what should I do about all these scenarios? You've talked a lot about marketing strategies. We just talked about those are things that I 33:36 did not need a Sylvia's product for what we just explained where I just agree to sell March 33:44 crop I'm sorry new crop in March and I hold it myself. I did not need to buy anything from Sylvia's Financial. Why not? 33:55 Because you're just selling your bushels and you're taking your your risk that you have on those bushels off the 34:01 table. So there's no need to protect those bushels unless the way that you would want us is 34:07 if you wanted some upside on those bushels that you are committing. That's the only reason why I do that. I think I sold them. I'm happy 34:13 with that. But it also looks a little cheap. I'd rather give you a little money and then give me a opportunity to get more 34:20 for them. Should the market move between now and March. Yeah, exactly. So that's that's where I can make out. So that's the best that seems like 34:29 of all the snares we've laid out. That's the best one that one where we talked about. The insurance isn't going 34:35 to be met and the price point is gonna be bad and my craft be bad. I didn't like that scenario at all. It's very I like best is I've got bushels and you 34:44 give me an option where I can sell them for good money right now for a few months from now and also you protect me for possible Buck upside. 34:54 Yep, exactly. Yeah, that's probably best case or even if say I know we were down decent today. But say if 35:00 we get back up, I think on Friday we hit like 6:48 March Futures. So if you get something like that plus an improved basis where you can lock in 35:09 almost 650 Futures on March and then possibly buying outside strategy from there. I mean, that's what's ideal. I mean, hopefully we get to 35:18 see that again, but we just saw it last week. I like the one that you just gave me. That was a really good scenario. Now. 35:24 I want to throw you this one. I have no bushels. I have no storage and I am not even gonna produce any bushels because I case rent 35:33 my farm ground out, but I still want to make money. Can you guys help me do that? Can you help me make money where you 35:39 just make this all work for me? And I just give you I just give you some see maybe like five or ten dollars you turn into 50,000. 35:45 Can you do that? Now we might need more to than five or ten because options are a little bit pricey with this volatility right now. What is the minimum? What is the minimum? I got to give you 35:56 to create account for you to help me just do become a commodity Trader. No price requirement just be to 36:05 be able to buy the options. I mean, there's no kind of if you're a trade only spec account. You don't have to put X-Men on a dollars in it's just whatever options you 36:14 want to look at buying or futures. Yeah, I'm planning on do it because if I had to sit and look at the green green charts all day. It'd give 36:22 me a headache but I appreciate that. What did we not cover we need to cover about this. We're heading into Harvest. There's a lot of I mean 36:28 every year there's something it could be weather. It could be Global volatility. It could be China's gonna do this or Russia's gonna do that this year. 36:37 It's Ukraine and Russia not discounting the the tragedy of the war. But the point is this has been happening every year. 36:43 There's always something so there's always a little bit of volatility and it's not the first time that we've wondered about 36:49 our yield numbers being off. Just a few years ago. They said was gonna be 178 we hit 172 and then we've seen it. Whereas 36:58 the other way around. Is this that different of a fall or late summer than any other? I would say the end of this year is kind of been similar to. 37:10 The last two in that nature we're dealing with very tight balance sheets and coming into the fall expecting South 37:16 America to grow a huge crop. You know, that's kind of been the theme the last two years and whether you know, I think it was beans the first year in corn this 37:25 past year that The weather has been really difficult down there and just how you said, you know, like the weather around the world's 37:33 been volatile. So, you know, I think that's why you're seeing a lot of these this outside money stepping away from Commodities right 37:39 now because we're expecting this massive South America crop to come online and China to go there for their purchases, but 37:47 If they don't grow it. They kind of have to come here. Yeah, so prices there. Is this your really any 37:56 Big different than any other year. It doesn't seem other than the prices are good. Even a six ten that still 38:05 a good number compared to where we have been in different times throughout history or 13. What 38:11 is it? Thirteen sixty on soybeans at a number? Yeah, I think a little bit thirteen eighty something we 38:17 closed at today, but the numbers are still pretty good. There's always some level of if there wasn't some 38:23 level of global instability and volatility and weather issue. They'd have nothing to talk about on the AG Market shows. So I mean, we got a certain about this. Is it all 38:32 that different this year Bryce than the other I'm saying? No. I mean, I think it's a little bit different word guys are kicking 38:38 themselves more because they were looking at 750 corn versus six. And now I feel like that they just feel that big drop. 38:47 Versus mean they're still upset at themselves, but they still can look at their profitability and have a nice profit here at six dollars. I mean, 38:56 yeah, they might they might have missed a whole bunch of very very big bumper type profits that they left on the table. And then the 39:05 main thing you let's say is there's still some downside risk. There's still some downside risk and that's based on this USDA number 39:11 and based on how we actually end up and you've given me a number or from five dollars and fifty cents just using corn as an example to seven dollars and I'm sure that we can make the same case for 39:20 weeks soybeans more. So for soybeans we a lot of it's already been harvested here in North America at least so you can make the same case that 39:29 there's a couple bucks of spread in in where it could be down or where it could be up, right? Yes. Yeah, absolutely and just like you said beans 39:38 can be even wider. I mean we can trade 12 hour beans or we can train eat 18 dollar beans with how tight this balance sheet is if we have a yield scare. 39:47 Like that, I mean things could get pretty wild for beans. Yeah, it doesn't seem like we've been a long time on corn but not from a strategy 39:53 standpoint. There's a whole bunch of stuff. That's not in the stockpile like the report. I'm reading here and we talked about it and we both I told 40:02 you I checked out what the Purdue webinar had to say about this. We're sitting around like seven to nine percent of stocks to 40:10 you use or something like that our stockpile our inventory is 40:15 Scarce so that's going to cause a lot of movement on the soybean numbers, right? Yep, and that's kind of what we saw. I mean we saw them race yield 40:25 from what 51.4 to 51.9 with that and with the kind of weather forecast flipped were some areas got some key range, but now we've been down back to 40:37 back days big units. So the point is none of us are feeling so I need to protection on anything. I might be I might be willing to 40:46 fly less protected on my corn and want more protection on my soybeans because of the upside am I thinking correctly or am I thinking like a dodo? 40:54 Sean you answer that because you never met me so stupid. Uh, that would be in my opinion. That would be the right way to look at it because you know, 41:03 if you just go look it back at the last USDA report. That was definitely a more friendly report. For and a not so friendly report for beans. So your 41:12 recommendation would be get more protection on soybeans and less on corn if you're going to opt for 41:18 one of the other. Correct. And the risk is the risk on the downside. It might protecting myself because I think we're gonna go to 12 or my protecting myself selling right now at 1360. I 41:29 think I saw what you said 1380, but that's that's newer old, right? 41:33 That's for new. And then that that's where I can come in and argue that the crop insurance Spring price is also set at 1410. So 41:39 we're kind of below that spring price right now. So it's you have to know where your insurance lies to yeah, 41:45 so but but I couldn't should I just stick with that expand expectation or could I figure out a way to say no, you know what 41:51 I think 14 10 or 1380. I think there's up. I think there's it goes to 16. I want to I want to participate in 16, but I also don't want to miss out on 42:00 14 because 14 I still make money, right? Yeah, I mean, I mean very easy. I think you could buy a 16 dollar call right now for like 10 cents 10 10 42:09 to 11 cents. So I mean you can very easily so your cash medic. I won't upside from 16 plus. You can spend 10 to 15 cents and get some upside. I 42:19 think I like that I sell 14 dollars soybeans. I give you 10 cents and I get the opportunity to really price with 16 bucks. Is that what I'm hearing? 42:29 Yeah, you get upside from 16 up where that's on the November contract where if I were wanting to do it with these USDA number that I probably want to go go out 42:38 and March and spend a little bit more money to get that time value because as we know the USDA 42:44 Historically doesn't like the drop that yield all at once or very quick so having the time value might be in your 42:50 favor. We just did my hall my Harvest marketing strategy and as we titled this episode, it's never too early to start or why you should start your Harvest marketing 43:01 strategy right getting on the way out the door. No, I think what we talked about was good and just like what we've talked about. No, I mean some people might not even know where they sit 43:10 right now as far as percent. So because they don't know what yield is I mean take a minute to kind of gather yourself 43:16 before you get into the field for Harvest is so you kind of know where where you're at ahead of that so you can plan 43:22 accordingly. Well, once they see that yield monitor, they're gonna their percentage sold to go change up or down but you're saying that we should have a pretty good idea. I 43:31 mean, we think we're 50% sold and then we get in there and say man, this stuff's running way better and I thought looks like I'm only 38% sold. 43:37 Then you start getting on a horn with service financial and saying hey, I gotta move some more stuff because I'm not even close to half 43:43 sold. Looks like I'm closer to a third. Is that what we're talking about? Yeah. Exactly. Cool. All right. His name 43:49 is Bryce. The other guy Sean Finley I'm Damian. And there with Sylvia's Financial if you want to learn more about how to integrate your crop insurance needs with 43:58 your crop marketing needs with the ability and the expertise to navigate the government program is tying all three of those Revenue sources and 44:07 protections together talk to Sylvia's Financial. That's what they do. That is their expertise. And where do they find them? Where do they find you guys? 44:15 We're at Sylvia's financial.com and we're all so on Facebook LinkedIn Instagram. All social media's and more importantly you're at extreme AG because every 44:24 month we get together and do this right here. I I take the arrows. I I accept the abuse from Bryce every 44:33 month so that I can make you smarter while I learn on your behalf. Anyway until next time thanks for being here share these with all the people, 44:42 you know the benefit from them because you know what, you're silly to go out there and protected there's a there's a lot of capital at stake 44:48 and you want to make sure you're doing the right thing to maximize your profits and more importantly protect your assets till next time. 44:55 That's a wrap for this edition of extreme. AG's cutting the curve podcast brought to you by Sylvia's Financial Sylvia's advisors show business-minded farmers 45:04 how to integrate government programs with crop insurance as well as crop and cattle marketing to achieve 45:10 positive Financial outcomes. Learn more at Sylvia's financial.com.